My Smartphone Predictions from 2003
The year was 2003 and iPhone and Android were still years away. At this point I had owned some small form-factor computing devices (PDAs) such as the Palm Pilot (Handspring) and Pocket PC as well as dedicated feature phones, mostly flip types. In the years that followed, I would move on to “smartish” devices like the Blackberry and Hiptop/T-Mobile Sidekick. But the first modern smartphone I owned would probably be the HTC Dream (aka T-Mobile G1) running one of the earliest public versions of the Android operating system in late 2008.
I’m getting ahead of myself, though. Let’s go back to August 2003 and see what I thought the perfect PDA would be (even though I didn’t realize I was describing a smartphone at the time). I’m no prophet and there were a lot of ideas burning in the heads of tech geeks, but I think I did pretty well in hindsight.
I got a bit of criticism for this list back then. People often said things like “individual devices are cheaper and you can have a better, dedicated devices for each of many of these functions”.
Pocket PC Platform: I had already used this platform extensively on a PDA and it was pretty robust, if somewhat temperamental. I had seen some other “feature phone” systems and wasn’t impressed at the selection of software and ease of development. I couldn’t foresee a dedicated operating as advanced as Android or iOS at the time, though.
MISS
Built in Phone (Speakerphone, International Roaming, Multiple Carriers): Even back then I knew that adding phone functionality to PDAs was inevitably and would open a floodgate of capabilities.
HIT
Bluetooth, WiFi and IR: Yes, we had these back then. All three of these features have since appeared on smartphones after my list but IR was always very niche (mostly remote controls) but you can still find dongles/attachments to support it if you really need an “IR blaster”.
HIT
FM Band transmission: I think I meant that I wanted to be able to transmit audio from my phone to a selected channel. Sort of like those FM adapters that people used to use for their car stereos. I think this method never had very good fidelity compared to wired solutions, and became moot once Bluetooth adapters and BT car stereos became cheaper and more common.
MISS
Voice recognition (commands, speach2text, autodial): Let’s face it, with those tiny screens, buttons, and grumpy stylus input, I really wanted a way to do common tasks and commands by voice. This feature is almost ubiquitous in smartphones now even though some people still shun it.
HIT
Music player (mp3, etc): Mobile devices were already the same size, if not smaller than early digital music players, so it only made sense to me that the two should merge. And I’d already started preferring digital music collections to physical, leaving my giant CD cases at home whenever I could.
HIT
eBook Reader (lit, pdf, etc): eBook reading was kind of a chore then (check out that call out to .lit format!). I recall lots of PDF documentation and Microsoft making a big push for actual digital literature. Admittedly, modern tablets and Kindle type devices are still better at this, I’m marking this as a hit given how common eBook apps are on every mobile computing operating system now.
HIT
Still Camera, Video Recorder, Audio Recorder: I was solidly shouted down about how small digital cameras were vastly superior to anything that could be crammed into a PDA. I almost never see one now except among tourists and in cases where folks are afraid to lose/break their phone.
HIT
Internet (FULL features, sufficient for streaming video): Exceeded my expectations as mobile networks are actually more robust than wired internet in some parts of the world.
HIT
SMS support (ie rim/blackberry): Having seen the heavy usage and core functionality in early Blackberry/RIM devices, this went hand and hand with the phone and internet prediction.
HIT
Built in Global Positioning System: Stand alone GPS units were around but very pricey and required the tedious loading of expensive “map packs” as you moved around from region to region. This was another of those “why multiple device” moments, and leverage internet connectivity.
HIT
2 Way, multi-band radio (minimum 5 miles, GPS sync): I think I was thinking about the vast dead zones of mobile phone coverage that still existed and how nice it would be to have a backup system for some activities and businesses. A form of this has actually come back after the network-crushing outages we’ve seen during crisis situations.
KINDA
Built in TV & Radio Tuner: I was probably thinking, well while I’m killing music players and digital cameras, might as well stuff a radio and television in there too. Many smartphones actually DO have an FM receiver chip in them but these are often disabled in the US market version. Not sure why, possibly FCC stuff? Broadcast television on smart devices proved less prophetic, probably due in part to the rise of internet video and streaming.
KINDA
Built in Keyboard/Pad configuration: While tiny keyboard would become wildly popular there for a while, once touch interface hardware and software improved, the writing was on the wall. This was during that brief period where I think everyone wanted something better, but hadn’t quite committed to one path or another.
KINDA
Minimum 1gig processor, 512mb onboard ram, 10gb onboard: Everyone always wants more processing power and storage. My basic prediction was that no one was going to ever be satisfied and the trend to faster/more would forever be part of the evolution of these devices. This was easy to call.
HIT
Minimum 10 hour battery (constant use, traditional or mini-fuel): While there were devices that met this requirement back then, the cutting edge ones did not and seemed to be getting less and less battery time. A trend no one liked and no one still does. I plucked some low-hanging fruit. Sue me. 🙂
HIT
Solar/Kinetic charging option: I had a solar flashlight and a watch that wound itself by the swinging motion of your warm when you walked, why not a mobile computing device? While there are some niche devices that incorporate this internally, you mostly find these features on certain external phone chargers, if at all.
MISS
At least SIM, SD(IO), CF and PC card slots: Expand-ability has always been a strong requirement for me. Although the formats change, being able to add memory and other functionality to your devices continued to grow. You can add vast amounts of storage, bewildering array of adapters and even Star Trek esque sensors
HIT
Biometric security (eye, thumb, whatever): Hate them or love them, you’ll find these on even some low end smartphones now.
HIT
Built in dongle-less usb/sync and charger cables: Universal cable/connectors. Nicely done, Past-Geoffrey! And dongle-less cables (well, at least until Apple decided it needed more accessory revenue).
HIT
Built in IO ports for full-sized keyboard, mouse and monitor: USB fulfilled this briefly and we even had phones that could dock in “books” that could make them into laptops. Bluetooth has since taken over this niche.
HIT
Remote Control capacity (for home, car, etc): Although the smart home/car/life is not without its dangers and privacy issues, it did eventually make its way to our mobile devices. Excuse me while I check the house cameras and tell the dog to get off the couch.
HIT
Sensors: Temperature, smoke, electronic compass, altimeter, barometer, geiger counter, motion detector: Kinda? I obviously had some Tri-corder fantasies, but a couple of these do exist in a fashion on many phones; particularly compass, altimeter (via GPS) and motion/orientation detectors.
HIT
God’s own encryption: This one has become more important that most people realize. Hostile regimes both foreign and local, erosion of privacy and data/identity theft.
HIT
Form factor that you want to make love to: These devices weren’t always pretty or comfortable to hold. We’ve seen them become integral to life/style and often the appearance outweighs the actual function for many owners.
HIT
Wireless earbud mic, with option for stereo: How you liking those wireless earbuds and headphones? Me too. 🙂
HIT
Wireless eyepiece, with option for duo: Google Glass for a while there.
HIT
Flexible, retractable display (ala Earth: Final Conflict): Date your science fiction there much, Geoffrey? Flexible screen remain a bit elusive but definitely on the radar more so in the last few years.
HIT
Wireless neural interface and sensory input: These remain the realm of medical and research science, or extreme niche use… for now.
SOON?
